Purdue vs. Texas odds, picks: Expert predictions for NCAA Tournament second round game

June 2024 · 3 minute read

Do you know what Purdue looked like Friday afternoon? The Boilermakers looked like a basketball school.

The Boilermakers made easy work of the Yale Bulldogs in their 78-56 victory to advance to the Round of 32.

Sophomore Jaden Ivey, a likely top-three pick in the upcoming draft, led the way for the Boilermakers with 22 points and four rebounds on 6-of-13 shooting from the field. The second part of the two-headed Purdue monster came through, too, as Zach Edey was a rebound shy of a double-double with a 16 and nine line with three blocks in 19 minutes.

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Purdue’s offense averages 79.8 points per game – 13th in the country – but their adjusted offensive efficiency numbers rank first (122) in the country, so it was no surprise to see them show up in a big way. Purdue easily covered the 16.5-point spread, and the two teams hit the under (144.5).

For Purdue to reach the Sweet 16, which they made in three straight years from 2017-2019, they’ll have to go through Texas, which defeated Virginia Tech 81-73.

Texas is a bad 3-point shooting team. We’re not here to sugarcoat things here. On the year, they rank 255th among Division I men’s teams in 3-point percentage, shooting 32.3 percent from downtown.

The Longhorns who took the court Friday must not have gotten that message, as they knocked down 10 threes in their win over the Virginia Tech Hokies. The Hokies were hoping to use their ACC tournament momentum to advance in the NCAA Tournament, but they ran into a high-scoring Longhorns squad that had five different players in double-figures.

Among the standouts for the Longhorns were Andrew Jones, who hit five first-half 3-pointers, and Marcus Carr, who posted a 15-point, eight-assist line.

The money shifted slightly in favor of Texas heading in, as it closed as 1.5-point favorite. The Longhorns ended up covering the spread and teams blew past the 124.5 total.

We now get a must-watch matchup between Texas and Purdue. Texas has the nod on defense, ranking 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency metrics, but Purdue’s aforementioned top-offensive ranking is going to push the Texas defense to the limit. How they come out against Ivey and Edey will be the story Sunday.

With the opening lines at Texas +3.5 and a 134.5 total, I’m taking Texas in the upset and the under.

What: East Region, second round

Tipoff time: 8:40 p.m. Sunday

TV: TNT

Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee

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Odds, Over/Under, Moneyline

TeamSpreadTotalMoneyline

+135

-3.5

134.5

-165

All odds from BetMGM. Click here for live odds.

NBA Draft prospects

Jaden Ivey, Purdue sophomore guard, top 5

Trevion Williams, Purdue senior forward, potential second round

Zach Edey, Purdue sophomore center, potential second round

See Sam Vecenie’s full NBA Draft big board

Expert picks

WriterStraight Up Pick

Charlotte Carroll

CJ Moore

Austin Meek

Jesse Temple

Dana O'Neil

Justin Williams

Joe Rexrode

Doug Haller

Bob Kravitz

Brendan Quinn

Brian Hamilton

Brendan Marks

Eamonn Brennan

Model prediction: Purdue by 0.6 points, 134.6 total

More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage

(Photo of Jaden Ivey: Ben Solomon / NCAA Photos via Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article)

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