Cowboys vs. Bills roundtable: Strengths, challenges, WR matchups and league-leading QBs

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It feels like the 1990s again. The Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills are two of the league’s most interesting and relevant teams, competing for supremacy in their respective conferences.

They travel a different path in 2023. The Cowboys have the NFC East and the conference’s top seed in their sights. The AFC East isn’t out of reach for the Bills, who also are mired among a mix of 7-6 teams in the AFC’s wild-card chase. But Buffalo is fresh off a significant win over the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Many eyes will be on Sunday’s matchup in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Athletic’s Cowboys writer Jon Machota and Bills writer Joe Buscaglia break it down in this roundtable.

What will be the toughest challenge for the team you cover on Sunday?

Machota: Stopping the Bills on the ground. The Cowboys have been better in this area this season, however, they’re not expected to have veteran defensive tackle Johnathan Hankins this Sunday. Hankins suffered a high ankle sprain in last Sunday’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles. The combination of Hankins and DT Osa Odighizuwa has been a strength. With Hankins out, how much does that impact Dallas’ run defense? While this is a group that has been able to overcome the loss of LB Leighton Vander Esch, my prediction is Hankins’ absence will be more noticeable against the Bills. The Cowboys’ hope is that their first-round pick, DT Mazi Smith, can step up in place of Hankins. Up to this point, Smith’s rookie season has been underwhelming. In 13 games, Smith has totaled only two QB hits and two tackles for loss.

Buscaglia: As rudimentary as it is, the Bills biggest challenge will be for their offense to go toe-to-toe with a Cowboys team that has averaged 38.1 points per game over its last seven. The Bills are now three games into their year with interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady calling the plays, and to this point they have made some good strides both with the balance of their offense and in correcting some of their inconsistencies in finishing drives under previous offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Most of all over their last three games, Josh Allen has found the best version of himself and returned to his ways of pulling a rabbit out of a hat on some extremely difficult third-down situations. Of course, the Bills defense will need to help slow down the high-powered Cowboys passing attack, but if they’re going to win on Sunday, Allen will likely need to have one of those games that reminds onlookers the Bills offense is back to its elite ways of previous seasons.

What should the team you cover feel most confident about heading into Sunday?

Machota: The play of their quarterback. Dak Prescott has been performing at an MVP level ever since the team’s 42-10 loss at San Francisco in Week 5. In the last eight games, Prescott has completed 69 percent of his passes for an average of 305 yards per game while totaling 23 passing TDs, only two interceptions and a 118.5 passer rating. He just looks like a completely different player from the 49ers game, using his feet much more to extend plays but also gain yards. No. 1 wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has been a significant part of that success as well as an offensive line that has finally had its best five healthy for an extended period of time. Prescott and company haven’t been as good outdoors this season, going 2-2. They might have multiple postseason games outdoors, so this should be a great test.

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Buscaglia: With a ton of talent along their defensive line and some matchups to exploit for the Cowboys, the Bills should be able to apply pressure on Dak Prescott on Sunday. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver is having an excellent season and already has the highest sack total of his career. A Texas native, he also loves playing against the Cowboys and had two sacks against them as a rookie in 2019. At defensive end, Leonard Floyd has been outstanding in his first season with the Bills, and third-year pass rusher Greg Rousseau finally looks healthy and has been an impact player the last two weeks. With that trio on a high percentage of the Bills’ defensive snaps, and Prescott holding on to the ball for an average of 2.6 seconds per dropback, it should lend itself well to the Bills applying pressure and at least forcing errant throws.

Who covers CeeDee Lamb? Who covers Stefon Diggs? What makes those particular matchups interesting?

Machota: I believe that Stephon Gilmore will get the majority of the work against Diggs. Gilmore is coming off his best game as a Cowboy. He was the defensive player of the game against the Eagles with the way he played against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Gilmore, 33, is the savvy veteran, the 2019 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, who has been motivated by those who suggest he’s too old to play at a high level. DaRon Bland will also get some work against Diggs. While the second-year corner will give up some big plays, he has also created more than his share. Bland has 13 interceptions, five pick-sixes and 21 passes defended in only 30 career games. It’s obviously disappointing that Trevon Diggs suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice three months ago, because the Diggs vs. Diggs matchup would’ve been this game’s biggest storyline.

Buscaglia: The Bills’ zone scheme likely will cover CeeDee Lamb rather than any one person, though there could be a slight lean to trade deadline acquisition Rasul Douglas on the few reps that the Bills are in man-to-man coverage. The Bills haven’t been quite as dedicated to keeping Douglas and other starting cornerback Christian Benford on one side of the defense as the team had done in the past when Tre’Davious White was in the lineup. However, that isn’t dictated by matchup all that much. The Bills prefer to keep their usual defensive shape, believing the whole is greater than the sum of its parts in dealing with all of their injuries to starters in 2023. Lamb will be a challenge, and they’ll likely pay extra attention to him with some bracket coverage or a double-team here or there, but the Bills will prioritize making Dak Prescott uncomfortable with pressure from their front four above all else.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen have met once before in 2019. (Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)

As of Wednesday, the Bills are favored by 2.5 points. Surprised or expected?

Machota: I’m a little surprised, just because of how well the Cowboys have been playing since their bye week. But that number speaks of how much better Josh Allen is at home and how Dak Prescott hasn’t been nearly as effective on the road, particularly outdoors. Despite the Bills not having the record most thought they’d have at this point (full disclosure: Buffalo was my preseason pick to win the Super Bowl), there’s no questioning that they’re still a talented group. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones summed it up pretty well from the league meetings on Wednesday. “We need to get out of Buffalo any way we can with a win,” Jones said. “They are a really good team. We got a break. We’re not gonna be in a blizzard. But that quarterback is very good. I have a lot of respect for what we’re up against here. It’s arguably right there with the challenge we had last week against Philadelphia. Really. Right there. In terms of the quality of the team and being on the road. About the same kind of chips are on the line.”

Buscaglia: Slightly surprised, but not terribly. Oddsmakers have given the Bills slightly unexpectedly close lines each of their last three games against the Eagles, Chiefs and now Cowboys despite not producing the consistently winning results in the games leading up to those contests. The Bills are an immensely talented team that has underachieved this season in many of their close games, and the oddsmakers seem to agree with close lines against three of the elite teams in the NFL. It would not at all be a surprise if the Bills cover this spread the way they did against the Chiefs last week.

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Dak Prescott brings an MVP case to Buffalo, where the league leader in total touchdowns resides in Josh Allen. Jon, what do you like about Allen? Joe, what do you admire about Prescott the most?

Machota: Really, it’s everything. His ability to beat defenses in a variety of ways. He has the big arm. He’s mobile. He can play well under the toughest of circumstances. He has played big in big moments. His postseason numbers of 17 touchdown passes to four interceptions speaks for itself. Aside from Patrick Mahomes, Allen belongs in the conversation with any other top QB in the league. Like Prescott, it’s just about making that deep playoff run and winning a ring. Allen is obviously capable of accomplishing those goals. Any team would be thrilled to have him as its franchise quarterback. I expect him to be one of the league’s elite QBs for at least the next decade and probably longer.

Buscaglia: As Allen continues to try and find the sweet spot of using his rushing skills as an offensive weapon with preventing injury due to hits taken on those plays, it shines a great light on Prescott, who has evolved excellently into the effective pass-first quarterback we see today. His ball placement has improved since he entered the league, which has added to his overall passing profile. Prescott has done a great job of establishing a strong, and at times impeccable rapport with Lamb, but also in getting all of his secondary targets involved this season. With teams sometimes taking Diggs away from Allen, it makes it even more impressive that Prescott and the Cowboys have been able to prevent opponents from taking away their top target to a grand degree.

(Top photos of Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb: Bryan Bennett and Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)